In Ukraine in the near future the dollar may fall to 26.5-UAH 26.6/$ and to achieve a record low during the quarantine mark. About why and how long will cheapen the dollar – read the material OBOZREVATEL.
after Rada passed the law “On banks”, the situation has improved as market participants are optimistic;
overall, the market is dormant, this helps to keep a cheap dollar;
the next seven days, the hryvnia will be moderately cheaper and will reach a record low for the entire period of quarantine level;
the dollar will go up after the end of quarantine and aktiviziruyutsya business.
The dollar will fall in price until the end of quarantine
In Ukraine the dollar will fall in price until the end of may, certain respondents OBOZREVATEL analysts. Oddly enough, the situation on the currency market will worsen after the end of the quarantine. This is due to the fact that renewed business activity. Increase import, aktiviziruyutsya buyers of the currency. Up to this point, the hryvnia may reach at 26.5 UAH/$.
“The market is still very low activity and liquidity. The major players are not there. Maybe the sellers will appear in the background of increased domestic optimism on the prospects of cooperation with the Fund, however, the situation is still severe, and as the country’s quarantine pressure on the exchange rate will increase”, – says head of Department of Analytics Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin.
“The situation is still severe, and as the country’s quarantine pressure on the exchange rate will increase,” says Shevchishin.
The expert believes that in the next week dollar will be cheaper. According to him, it is possible that with 26,7 UAH/$, the Ukrainian currency will strengthen to 26.6 UAH/$. Such dynamics over a week seems insignificant, however, for the time of quarantine it will be the lowest rate of the American currency.
After the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of the law “On banks” has improved the prospects of renewing cooperation with the IMF. And significantly decreased the risk for the banking sector and budget. Moreover, as soon as the international monetary Fund will provide its final assessment and endorse further cooperation with Ukraine, the EU will be ready to release the second tranche of macro-financial assistance program with a volume of EUR 500 million.
Such remarks voiced and senior analyst at “Alpari” Vadim Iosub. “Next week we expect a moderate depreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia. The dollar on the interbank market can be traded in a week about 26.5-UAH 26.6, and the cash dollar in banks – 26.5/26,8 UAH”, – says Iosub.
Ukraine will get new IMF program
Press Secretary of the IMF Jerry rice at the briefing stated the following: “In the ongoing virtual debate to discuss policies that can be supported by the Fund, in the framework of the program rather stand-by and not eff… And then, when the economy recovers, the focus of support for the IMF may shift again to the decision of problems of long-term structural reforms in Ukraine to facilitate a stronger and more inclusive growth”.
Why program changed:
Now the IMF is reviewing the program for most countries. So extended for three years provides for structural reforms, and now, when economies worldwide are collapsing, the main objective is the stabilization. The question of structural change goes by the wayside.
Relatively speaking: when the house start leaking roof, you need first to patch it, saving the furniture, floor and household, and already then to think about the independent or the second floor veranda. The expanded program is in a situation where the government has embarked on an ambitious transformation. But when planning anything and need urgently to solve urgent problems, according to the IMF, it is more efficient short program.
“To say that Ukraine was to blame in this situation, it is impossible. The law on the land market is adopted, the law on banks is at the final stage. Yes, there was the question of privatization. But now, during quarantine, it is difficult to organize and conduct auctions, and suggestions will be much lower. So now just not the time for this,” says financial analyst Vladimir Mazurenko.
Analyst Yegor com sure: there’s no reason to panic. The conditions for receiving the short program at 18 months will still have to perform. And the dollar, which often responds to news of cooperation with the IMF, over the past day virtually unchanged.
The international monetary Fund
Market participants are well aware of the transition in the short program – just a choice of tool, not a lack of cooperation. Moreover, the majority of Ukrainians do not go into details of what the program discussed with the IMF and the difference. Other creditors of Ukraine also first look at whether there is cooperation.
Even a short program of funding will offer us the possibility to get cheap loans from the world Bank, the European Union, the European Bank for reconstruction and development.
“The choice of lending instrument depends on many factors. Now really efficient stand-by program. For me personally, it was clear that the expanded programme EFF we could do like other countries. The logic of the IMF is this: let’s survive year or two, and then we’ll see. And these a year or two the money we give you. And this logic is one for all,” says Komov.
In turn, the representative of Ukraine to the IMF Vladyslav Rashkovan sure that you can get $5 billion from the IMF in 2020-21, on stand-by is easier than in the EFF program.
In 2020 and 2021-m the amount of tranches will not change. If need be, in 2022 it will be possible to enter into new lending. But, perhaps, this amount (under the program stand-by can be $5 billion) will be enough.
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