If the economy will grow faster than a certain value, the Ukraine will have to pay old debts

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The Ministry of economic development in the baseline scenario, approved July 11,”Forecast of economic and social development of Ukraine for the years 2019-2021” expects nominal GDP growth of Ukraine in the $ 112,1 billion in 2017 up to 125,7 billion in 2018.

According to the Ministry’s forecast in 2019, GDP may leave 140 billion in 2020 149,9 billion, and in 2021 – 163,6 billion. Such calculations are based on the forecast of the dollar in Ukraine in the years 2019-2021, prepared by the Ministry.

With the forecast of the Ministry of acceleration of economic growth from 3% in 2019 to 4.1% in 2021 such indicators nominal dollar GDP indicate the need for payment of state warrants (GDP-warrants, VRI), released during the restructuring of Eurobonds in 2015.

Recall that in the framework held in 2015, the restructuring of public debt holders of Eurobonds of Ukraine in proportion to their share in the total restructured debt received 20-year GDP warrants.

Payment will be in cash in US dollars depending on the dynamics of growth of real GDP of Ukraine:

  • if GDP growth for the year will be below 3%, payments on the securities will not be;
  • if the increase in real GDP from 3% to 4%, the payment on the securities will be 15% of the excess of GDP over 3%;
  • if economic growth for the year will be above 4%, then the payment will increase by 40% of the excess of GDP over the level of 4% growth.

While in the 2021-2025 years of payments on the GDP-warrant in either case is limited by the amount of 1% of GDP.