The increase of social payments to Ukrainians, including pensions, could create a threat of inflation. This can happen if in 2019 Ukraine will experience slow economic growth.
Such opinion on air ObozTV was voiced by the economist Evgeny Oleynikov. He also said that pensions have substantially increased the military by 60% and judges – 16%, and all other citizens – from 3% to 6-7%.
“I do not believe that this creates an extra-large threat of inflation. Last year, Ukraine has experienced economic growth. This is an indication of increasing output which can be consumed by those who receive higher social payments. But if this year we get a reduction in economic growth, and the threat, unfortunately, exist, the increase in social benefits may pose a threat of inflation. But there are no such figures to get Ukraine into some kind of uncontrolled hyperinflation”, he said.
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According to him, in the near future the dollar will fall against the local currency. At least in the next six months, sharp rise in the cost he does not expect.
“The global process is that of the US weakens the dollar and this is happening around the world. We saw that on our own course. But on the other hand, given that we have the size of the foreign exchange market is small, we are very perceptible to any of the local shock conditions. One of the reasons for the jump rate in the opposite direction is referred to the fact that “Ukrzaliznytsya” bought dollars for settlements on issued bonds. If you continue to will not occur some unpredictable events, the next two to three quarters I predict a sharp growth rate,” the economist added.
As reported by OBOZREVATEL, inflation in Ukraine up to 2018 slowed to a record figure of 9.8%. The national Bank of Ukraine to 2019 gives an even more optimistic forecast for growth of prices. According to financial analyst Vitaly Shapran, the national Bank is now “found a balance between inflationary risks and economic growth”.
The end of the day, Vadim Kolodochka see daily on weekdays at 16.30 on ObozTV.
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