Despite the overall decline in inflation, autumn is preparing a number of unpleasant “surprises” for family budgets
Author of the photo: Anatoliy Boyko, Today
The national Bank of Ukraine has confirmed its July forecast of inflation to the end of the year. According to the regulator, until the end of the year inflation will decrease to 8.9%, and by the end of next year will be only 5%.
The main factors that will influence inflation in the fourth quarter of this year, the NBU is called the expected increase in administratively regulated prices, stable consumer demand and high inflation expectations. The main limiting factor in inflation, the NBU believe tight monetary policy. In particular, since 7 September, the national Bank again raised interest rates to 18% per annum.
The harvest this year, according to the estimates of farmers, did not disappoint. However, autumn is preparing Ukrainians and a number of unpleasant surprises in the form of higher prices for food.
So that the most significantly more expensive this fall.
Bread. The grain will go for export
Experts predict that before the end of this year, the bread will rise in price by 10-25%. For information: according to Ukrstata, for the first half of the year the bread has risen about 8%, and last year by 18%. But different kinds of bread rose in price in different ways, and in the regions the prices have not changed in the same way. For example, the experts of the Association of retailers estimated that over the past year, brown bread price increased on average in Ukraine by 37%, and in Kiev – 69%. White bread in Ukraine for the year rose in price by 28%, and, for example, in the Zaporozhye region – by 42%. The future rise in price can also be not the same at different grades and in different regions.
The main reasons for future rise in price is called a low yield. But not here, as in other countries. In Ukraine this year so far collected approximately 7% less grain than in the past. But in many countries weather spoiled the harvest much more than we have, in connection with which the exporters predict an increased demand for Ukrainian grain and, therefore, high purchase prices. After export prices go up, and “internal”.
Experts see a lot of other reasons for the rise in price of bread. Higher prices for gasoline and energy, higher wages, etc. If the predictions come true, it means that those breads which are now sold, say, 2 UAH, will cost UAH 13-15, those who are 16 will have to buy a 18-20 UAH.
Alcohol. Vodka is almost 90 UAH
The government again decided to increase the minimum retail prices for alcoholic beverages. The corresponding resolution was adopted at the meeting on 5 September and will come into force this month (10 days after publication).
Minimum prices on alcoholic beverage drinks will increase by 12,4-12,9%, – for whiskey, rum and gin for 12%, cognac – 6,6-9,5% in wine – from 4.5 to 13.5%.
The cost of the cheapest vodka will make 89,4 UAH per pint (now 79,55 UAH, i.e. by 12.4% more). A bottle of wine with a capacity of 0.7 litres will not find a cheaper 42 UAH (the price increase will be 13.5%), champagne – 89 UAH. The minimum retail price of cognac will grow from 597,3 to 641,6 UAH per 1 liter of alcohol.
Gas. But, maybe the country will give credit
Officials and experts are already directly say that the price of gas for the population will grow in the near future. May 1 Oct.
The Minister of social policy Andrei Reva has even announced a possible new price of gas: is 6.96 UAH per cubic meter – about 11 UAH. That is, the price increase will be almost 60%. At the same time, the NBU forecasts that the price of gas will increase by only 25%.
Recall that the reduction of tariffs for the population in accordance with the “European parity” is one of those obligations that took over Ukraine, signing a credit agreement with the International monetary Fund. To perform it was supposed in the spring of 2017, but the government still refused to raise the price of gas. However, without the IMF loan the experts predict the country is so serious inflation that the gas price hike will seem a trifle. So, it seems, to raise the price of gas will have.
From 7 September in Ukraine is a technical mission of the IMF. She will be here until September 19. It is possible that “gas” the decision of the government will appear before the end of the mission.
Gas for industrial enterprises has risen from 1 September. The new differentiated tariff is 10.2 and 11.1 UAH per cubic meter.
Water and heating. New coming heating season
In anticipation of the new heating season will increase the fees on other utilities, particularly heat and water. The national Commission on questions of regulation of tariffs for electricity and utilities at almost every meeting gives permission to the regional electricity companies and water utilities to change the rates upward.
The heat tariffs for the population in each region is different, and appreciation are not the same. For example, in Zaporozhye the tariff for the population today is 1001,79 UAH/Gcal, and will rise to 1025,95 UAH/Gcal, i.e. by 2.5%. “Routeplaner” while supplies heat to the population at 1040,89 UAH/Gcal, but at the next meeting of the national Commission is expected to approve the increased rate 1233,72 UAH/Gcal. Thus, the rise of heat in this region can be had 18.5%.
The rising water in different regions will average 12-13%.
Milk and vegetables. The price increase will continue
According to forecasts Director of the Ukrainian Association of trade networks suppliers Oleksiy Doroshenko, autumn “borscheva set” will add to the price 30%.
“We can say that today Bordeau set we are at the bottom of the price. Vegetables will significantly rise in price. If we are to the end of the year will see inflation at 8%, the rise in prices of vegetables is expected at 30-40%”, – says Alexey Doroshenko.
Also projected increase in prices for dairy products by about 10%. Reasons cited are the reduction of livestock numbers, feed costs, etc.
The survey
the inflation forecast, the rise in prices, utility services, price increases
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Alexander Romaniuk
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