In Ukraine in the first week of June, the dollar may cross the usual mark of 27 UAH/$ on all market segments and to add in the price 10-30 kopecks./ Until the end of quarantine, analysts, significant fluctuations in currency should be expected.
That will affect the dollar and how much will it cost currency in the first week of June – read the material OBOZREVATEL.
Analysts predict the appreciation of the dollar
The quarantine stopped the whole spheres of the economy, the markets are collapsing, but the dollar remains stable. And while restrictions will apply, this situation will continue. Imports fall, exports slowed down. On the market there are neither major sellers nor major buyers of currency. And this is the main reason the dollar remains in a stable range.
When the quarantine will end, the dollar can rise. However, the national Bank expects that in this moment and export aktiviziruyutsya, Ukrainian enterprises will earn in dollars and then exchange them for the hryvnia, which will strengthen the national currency.
“I don’t think one day everyone will Wake up and run to buy the currency. The economy will recover gradually and the demand, respectively. But the weakening will also affect exports. Therefore, the exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions depending on demand and supply on the interbank market”, – said Deputy head of the NBU Dmitry Sologub.
At least the first week of June, analysts surveyed believe OBOZREVATEL, the national currency will gradually depreciate against the dollar. As told the head of Department of Analytics Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin: exporters refrain from active sales of the currency in connection with the repayment of VAT and the receipt of the hryvnia, while foreign investors continue to exit bonds.
“As the country’s exit from quarantine, importers are increasing their activity, however, focused on the state of real demand for goods. Probably in the near future , the hryvnia will continue to move near the mark of 27 hryvnia per dollar, while the market does not appear a major player, able to balance and move the course up,” he told OBOZREVATEL Shevchishin.
Which news affect the dollar:
The Cabinet announced the action plan on overcoming the consequences of crisis phenomena caused by Сovid-19 and quarantine;
the government admits the reduction of the country’s GDP in 2020 by 4-8% compared to the year 2019;
The national Bank expects peak unemployment rate of coronavirus in the second quarter of this year. Earlier it was reported that the number of unemployed in Ukraine because of a quarantine increased in may by 48% to 456,8 thousand people;
Ukraine June 5 may receive credit tranche from the IMF (forecast Prime Minister Denis Smagala).
“Next week we expect a moderate rise of the dollar against the hryvnia. The dollar on the interbank market can be traded in a week approximately 27.1 per UAH, and the cash dollar in banks may be about to 27.0/27.2 inches UAH“, – says senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
Ukraine will get new IMF tranche
IMF until June 5, will give Ukraine the first tranche of $1.9 billion, said Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal. We will receive $5 billion over several years to give for five years, and each year will have to pay 2.6 percent. As soon as we receive the credit, the market sentiment will change. In anticipation of the revaluation of the American currency will sell more, it can afford temporarily to improve the dynamics.
As long as the IMF have not formally agreed Memorandum, Ukraine promised not to disclose the terms of the loan. However, media is already a version of the Memorandum. According to her, the Cabinet should cancel the regulation of tariffs for gas. That is, the rate will be formed under market mechanisms.
And while this is good news. In “Naftogaz” say that in the beginning of the summer will be the historically low price of natural gas. And some of the world analytical agencies does suggest that on specific days the gas exchange may be sold at negative prices.
The remaining requirements of the special problems should not be: the budget should be balanced, the Supervisory Board of “Naftogaz” to return powers to the law “On banks” need to make some changes.
“Comment on the unofficial version of the Memorandum, I would not. But if you rely on official statements and the NBU, and the Prime Minister can now suggest that a special new requirements we do not see. For example, no requirements on specific dates of start of land market, but, for example, will the requirement to publish a report on the costs of combating the effects of coronavirus,” says financial analyst Vladimir Mazurenko in the comments OBOZREVATEL.
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