Photo: Press center of the Bank With napolnenie budget can be a problem, fear of the NBU

In January, the budget was narrowly missed by a quarter. The regulator admits that the budget revenues may be lower than planned.

In 2020 in Ukraine, problems may arise with the implementation of the state budget. This is stated in a fresh inflation report National Bank.

In NBU note that the budgeted inflation, exchange rate, volumes of excisable goods look “a bit optimistic”.

“The approved budget parameters for the year 2020 is assumed to be fairly moderate growth of both revenues and expenditures budget (roughly 10% compared to actual values, 2019), and the size of the deficit relative to GDP does not change and corresponds to obligations to the IMF. However, the implementation of the plan on the part of the revenues is tense,” – said in the report.

The regulator calls a “pretty ambitious” growth tax revenues, which is budgeted at the level of 15.9%, and assumes that the proceeds from the excise tax and the rent may be lower than planned.

At the same time “a powerful compensator potentially lower-than-budgeted tax revenues can be in surplus listings from Naftogaz of Ukraine”.

NBU also indicates that the possible savings in imports and servicing foreign currency debt in connection with a stronger hryvnia.

By NBU estimates, in 2020 Ukraine must pay more than $ 9 billion in foreign currency debt. But compared to the 2019 year, the total financial need associated with the debt transactions will drop slightly from 11.7% to 9.9% of GDP.

According to the updated report, consumer inflation is a big part of 2020 will be below the target range of 5% ± 1 VP, at the same time, economic growth will gradually accelerate to 3.5% in 2020 and 4% in 2021 or 2022.

Note, in the first month of 2020, the state budget revenues amounted to 42.6 billion UAH, which is UAH 13.8 billion or by 24.5% under plan.

 

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