Russian propaganda for a long time – from 9 to 23 October could not begin to enjoy full chest due to the withdrawal of troops of the USA from the Turkish-Syrian border. Tried, but came out bad. After the conclusion of 22 October in Sochi the Russian-Turkish agreement on the division two North-East Syria, from the Kremlin said: rejoice to the full. Rejoice in the steel, but leaves are still sparse and without a spark, you know, there is nothing to rejoice.
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Before you watch who and what wins in Syria, take a look at how did the Treaty in Sochi.
After a passionate exchange of barbs between Ankara and Washington in Turkey 18 Oct landed Mike Pompeo, not Donald trump. Landed so well that on the same day, Ankara and Washington signed a Treaty: U.S. withdraw its troops from Turkey, and that suspends the attack on the Syrian Kurds. Suspends for five days, which gives the Kurdish forces to leave the besieged Syrian town of Nazarje Sericania or Arabic – RAS-El-ain. Interesting detail – the media in Russia now began to be called all the Kurdish towns in Arabic, not Kurdish, as he did before.
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Ankara’s position was: let go, and five days later will see what to do next. For Washington to slow down with sanctions was not a problem – they were only against three Turkish Ministers, and everything else was just in the projects in Congress. Ankara and Washington are perfectly agreed, which the Kremlin threw him in a cold sweat, and he the next day made a punitive action against the Syrian toilets.
Russian pilots 19 Oct made 7 to 10 raids on abandoned small airfield “Taftanaz” near the eponymous town in Idlib. The airfield was a long time no one used runway overgrown with weeds and the only functioning object on it, apparently, was the toilet. According to the General staff of Russia, on the same airfield entrenched scary bearded jihadists from the “Committee for the liberation of sham,” and the military space forces of the Russian Federation was tasked to knock them out. As the bearded men with no aviation, the objectives of the bombing were the weeds on the runway and toilet.
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Russian pilots coped with the task – the toilet was down, the weeds thinned out, and the airfield was not suitable even to play football. Pilots al-Assad is not taken as could not, in contrast to the choir. Rope burn native hut for a modest fee.
Moscow urgently destroyed the airfield “Taftanaz” fright, that the Turks, who found a common language with Pompeo, tomorrow it will land, start bombing Damascus and all is lost. Eight years the airfield in territory controlled by the opposition and the Turks are not worried about Moscow, he decided to plow. In Ankara afterwards, probably, looked in the direction of Moscow and wagged his finger at his temple. This action was clearly anti-Turkish, but Moscow it has not given bonuses. By 21 October, the Kurdish forces withdrew from Sercani on October 23, expire on the five days that Erdagan Pompeo promised to halt the offensive. The Kremlin has again made a cold sweat: it was not clear what makes Erdogan after the stupid RAID on the “Taftanaz”, especially since unlike him, the Syrian Nazaria no one and nothing is promised. In Moscow you can call her and jihadists as anything but to be with her have.
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In the 22 October in Sochi appeared “Memorandum of understanding between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey”, the losers from which are placed in descending order: the Kurds, Russia, Assad, and trump.
Syrian Kurds under the leadership of the supposedly wise of the party “democratic Union” for the twelve days beginning October 9, the operation “Source of peace” and to “Memorandum” has managed to lose everything. Now they have to move at 32 km from the border as Erdogan wanted, but the worst conditions, without the possibility to save in the area of the militia units. The territory size of 150 to 32 km at all removed from them, so to speak, for domestic use, and gives it, so to speak, needs of defense of Turkey. It is the area between the towns of Sericania and tall Abyad, which were fighting. Moscow gave Turkey even those areas that its army has not had time to take.
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Turks are not accidentally launched an offensive that it is a territory with a mixed population. After her classes, striped Syrian Kurdistan was cut in the middle and get two isolated Kurdish enclave around the city of Kobani and Qamishli. All, a dream come true, Erdogan, Assad and Putin: the Kurdish state formation “Rozhava” (West) de facto ceased to exist. “Glue” back to the two enclave none of those three won’t allow it. If Erdogan will do anything to his middle back, not only the Arabs who went with ISIS and “Rojava”, but also refugees from other areas, the Assad and Moscow will do the same on their “ends” in Kobane and Qamishli. Now the Kurds are scratching their heads – poor living in the bosom of the trump, who promised them the state of Kurdistan, may not tomorrow, but in the long run. Spin for 12 days at the UN and in other venues the issue of creating a “greater Kurdistan” anybody also could not, and did not try.
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Kurds “democratic Union” can continue to criticize trump and American traitors, but in the eyes of the opposition of the Syrians, and Western leftists now they are traitors for fraternizing with the Assad “Damascus butcher”. The Kurds for a long time and successfully advertised their “Rojava” in America and in Europe as the image of a new anarcho-Communist world, they went to see and gave money, and now it all came to an end. First of all, moral – leftists at that time were convinced that the Marxists they parted again, though not as good as Stalin or Mao. As for the supporters of Assad and the BAATH party, the Kurds is something of a local “Banderovites”. Papa Assad and he was killed less than Saddam Hussein, only because in Syria they are smaller and they to 2012 was less active than in Iraq.
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The Kurds have not only lost funding from the United States, but also their own. In the city of al-Hasaka, they took with local asadovtsev engaged in the production and sale of oil, the tax is 35% in favor of the “Union of democratic forces”, from which one-third was given to Arab groups. But al-Hasakah took the troops of Assad and the oil happily change the “roof”.
To leave the Kurdish self-defense units launched in those districts where the Kurds are almost there. Despite the fact that most Kurds in Syria are descendants of those who composed the French army fought with Ataturk, and then retreated with her French mandated territory. The only “plus” the Kurds in this situation is the one that not all of their units, especially in the South-East broke off relations with the US and turned to Assad. It seems that soon will start to reverse the process.
The loss of the Kurds for 12 days was, according to Ankara, about 700 soldiers, the Syrian Nazarea lost 74 fighter Turkish army – about 10. During the battle for Raqqa in the Kurdish forces was 35 thousand fighters, in the war with ISIL, they lost 10 thousand people, but then their number was restored. Now these 35-40 thousand soldiers were left without a clear funding and politically disoriented.
The loss of the Kremlin is not as devastating as the Kurdish “democratic Union”, but in one aspect fatal.
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In Moscow, after “Memorandum” shall not enjoy the victory, and bury his idea of mobilizing all the Arabs to fight with the “new Ottoman yoke”, the possibility of which is greatly feared by the Obama administration. Two days after the beginning of the “Source of peace”, Mr. Putin flew to Saudi Arabia to talk not about oil, as that is the beginning of this mobilization. But Putin’s new Lawrence of Arabia came out. The Saudis, like other Arabs, had long lost interest in the so-called Palestinians, and especially not burn with the desire of the Kurds to mobilize for the war with the Turks, who together with the Persians do not give the “Palestinian issue” die a natural death. Now, when Moscow gave Turkey a part of the territory of Syria for self-defense, she is completely deprived themselves of the opportunity to conduct anti-Turkish propaganda among the Arabs.
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But the self-defense forces of Turkey, and include the Syrian Nazario numbering about 100 thousand fighters. This is the second major defeat of Moscow that Ankara started to use and will use more than once. Erdogan will give Nazarii control of those 4220 sq km, which received a “Memorandum”, and it will be face to face with the army of Assad and Russia. In fact, the Euphrates appeared the second Idlib, but on other terms, and with it Moscow and Assad got the front line is 450 km, such as in the East of Ukraine, and not only the length. Sochi will perform as well as the Minsk agreement, and in the long term it will suffer the fate of the Budapest Memorandum. Once again, the Syrian Nazaria in Sochi did not arrive, and promised not to go beyond the M4 anyone – neither Moscow, nor Washington.
Euphoria in Moscow from the acquisition of new territories Assad is slowly and under duress, as is evident two things. First, new areas need to be protected. Second, the situation with protection is reminiscent of the German occupation of Belarus, when the city and the road was controlled by the Germans, and the forest – all sorts of guerrillas, which he “smokes” had the Red army. The guerrillas were not paid much attention to the Germans when along the road collecting mushrooms. In Syria they are also not particularly pay attention to the Russians and asadovtsev along the roads, the total length of which in the Russian zone of occupation, more than 1.5 thousand km and is mountains, not the desert around Palmyra.
De-facto Russia in Sochi pretended strip in Northern Syria 450 km long and a width of 50 to 70 km, half of which agreed to guard together with Turkey. While there threw everything they could remove from the front in Idlib and scrape in the rear Assad. But this is clearly not enough, and will not be missed, when it will begin to fire intermittently different partisans, and their number will only grow.
Clash of the Russians with the Syrian Nazaria generally inevitable. The Kremlin has long been preparing for it and everywhere says that the Syrian Nazarea and opposition are wild men, fanatics, jihadists, and normal is not among them. The Kremlin will repeat the same trick that was done in the 1990s and the “zero” against the Chechens. Russian media in an instant then turned to General and member of the Communist party of Dudayev, Komsomolets, Basayev and all the Chechens in a tribe of savages from the caves. Judging by the fact that this company has already joined the opposition and Professor Valery Solovey, the Kremlin still very undercooked.
Assad is a kind of Pyrrhic victory. He claimed a big win in terms of information, but does not have enough forces to occupy and develop the territory lying between the “security zone” of Turkey and a vast territory remaining under the control of Arab groups of the Syrian democratic forces and the American-European Coalition. The Americans, to the chagrin of Moscow, left only with the North, but not in the center and South. Moreover, in those areas in raqqa, held rallies with the requirements of the US and the Europeans didn’t even think to go there. These rallies in the country, where since the 1960s planted the hatred of the US and the West, is a very serious victory for the Americans. It was worth to leave Kobane, Qamishli and Manuja, to blow one’s own database and write a dozen tents and piles of household waste, which enthusiastically began to rummage through the Russian media and military.
The United States from such care in General, only won, and big. The losers were the only person trump, who was accused to surrender territory to Putin. But Trump is no stranger to the fact that he was a Russian agent. Before election day a year, which in Syria will happen a lot of things interesting, and not only in Syria. Especially considering that Moscow does not want to carry the Sochi agreement and to provide Turkey agreed in this district, judging by the coming of the October 24, fights. Despite the fact that the signature of Putin at the Sochi Memorandum has not really dried out.
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