Photo: Корреспондент.net Ukraine’s Economy will face a difficult period
The negative impact of the pandemic on the Ukrainian economy is expected to be relatively short lived, but powerful enough to predict the national Bank.
The national Bank of Ukraine has worsened the assessment of the dynamics of real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2020 from 3.5% growth to 5% drop, but improved expectations of growth in 2021 with 4% to 4.3%. This was reported on the website of the regulator on Thursday, April 23.
“The negative impact of the pandemic on the Ukrainian economy is expected to be relatively short lived, but powerful enough. Quarantine measures have already reduced business activity, consumption and employment. The reduction in global demand limit export possibilities of the country”, – stated in the message.
By NBU estimates, the impact of these factors on the economy will significantly affect the second quarter of this year.
“The gradual lifting of quarantine will lead to the restoration of the Ukrainian economy in the second half of 2020. This will contribute to a soft fiscal and monetary policy. Increase in government budget expenditures on overcoming the crisis and measures of the National Bank to support the banking system will reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy”, – stated in the message.
According to him, the growth forecast for 2022 maintained at 4%.
The national Bank said that the new forecast nominal GDP for this year is 3.97 trillion UAH (was up 4.29 trillion UAH), next – of 4.36 trillion UAH (to 4.68 trillion UAH) with inflation (period-end) respectively 6% (4.8%) and 5% (5%).
We will remind, the Cabinet of Ministers forecasts the GDP decrease in Ukraine this year by 4.8% instead of the projected growth by 3.7%.
In turn, the IMF believes that the Ukrainian economy will fall by 7.7% in 2020, followed by reduction of 3.6% in 2021.
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