The baseline scenario of the forecast of the Ministry provides for a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia is not more than 3.2% by the end of 2021
The project “forecasting economic and social development of Ukraine for the years 2019-2021“developed by the Ministry of economic development and adopted by Cabinet on 11 July, built on the basic assumption of gradual devaluation of the hryvnia is not more than 3.2% per year, or to 30.7 UAH per dollar (plus or minus 2 UAH) to the end of 2021.
By the end of 2018 is expected to reduce the hryvnia exchange rate UAH 28,1 c in the dollar to 28.5 UAH per dollar (plus or minus UAH 1) with the subsequent weakening of its to 29.4 UAH per dollar (plus or minus 2 UAH) to the end of 2019.
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In negative scenarios, which is contained in the project and are built on the assumption of the deteriorating external environment, the hryvnia exchange rate may fall to 31.6 UAH per dollar (plus or minus 2 UAH) to the end of 2019 and 33.9 UAH per dollar (plus or minus 2 UAH) to the end of 2021.
Note, the budget for 2018 indicated that the calculations were made according to 30.1 UAH per USD and the Ministry of Finance and the national Bank assured – this course is not a forecast because it should be seen only as a technical parameter, taken for calculations to create a “safety cushion”.
At the same time, business in Ukraine is waiting for the dollar more than 30 hryvnia, although decline in the proportion of respondents expect depreciation of the hryvnia.
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