The European Union’s emergency summit on the evening of April 10 gave a caught in an impasse of Britain’s postponement of exit from the EU until October 31. Otherwise, in the night of Saturday, Britain would be “hard brakcet”.

Photo: Reuters

Under the terms of the deferral Britain may not wait for its end and formally to withdraw from the EU sooner if the house of Commons after all three rejected it ratified the agreement on leaving the EU.

In this case, the withdrawal of Britain will be held in the first day of the month following that in which the agreement will be ratified.

“This means an additional six months […]. I want to appeal to my British friends: this is long enough to find the best solution. Please don’t spend this time in vain,” — said at a press conference following the summit President of the European Council Donald Tusk .

According to Tusk, during these six months, Britain can ratify the agreement on the release and to withdraw from the EU before the end of October, could “reconsider its strategy in respect of “breccia”, and can and does withdraw the notice of withdrawal from the European Union, to abolish “brakcet”.

The head of the European Council does not exclude that the exit of Britain from the EU will have to move again.

“The political intention of the member countries of the EU is clear: we want and hope that Britain will make a final decision by October. But I am too old to exclude the other scenario”, — said Tusk.

Theresa may at the press conference following the summit said that I will try in the near future to seek approval of the draft agreement with the EU in the house of Commons and, consequently, the imminent withdrawal of Britain from the European Union.

“I continue to believe that we should leave the European Union, adopting the agreement as soon as possible,” said may.

The decision of the EU summit refers to the intermediate rating of “brexton” at the end of June. Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at a press conference explained that it is not, for example, about a new emergency summit at which the EU could cancel the delay.

“It’s just a moment in which we will assess the situation. This is not another “dot clipping”. The moment of decision — in October,” — said Juncker.

Before the EU summit the Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa may, insisted that Brussels wants only a brief delay until June 30, but Union leaders decided that such a small delay makes no sense: there is no guarantee that during this time British politicians will be able to overcome their differences and find a way out of political deadlock, which was in connection with “brexton”.

Most of the countries of the EU were inclined to give Britain a delay of nine months or even a year, but the President of France Emmanuel macron, according to information coming to journalists from behind the closed doors of the courtroom, insisted on a very short delay — until the end of may. Were eventually accepted the compromise.

Date of October 31, as explained by European diplomats associated with the impending change of management team in EU: November 1, shall enter into the powers of the new European Commission, and if Britain do eventually leave, it is important that it was not involved in the work of the new government of the European Union.

What’s next?

The majority in the Parliament strongly opposed to the “hard breccia”, and deputies have taken all measures to prevent it: this week, the Parliament passed a law obliging the government to seek a deferral.

Then Britain (and the Parliament) in theory can still approve the draft agreement on the exit — in and out on the first day of the following month.

This output will be largely formal: the agreement on the day of release begins a long transition period, during which the sides will negotiate about all the complex new relationship, and while Britain actually will remain part of the common space of the EU.

If in the coming weeks dreams Theresa may will not come true and the Parliament does not ratify the agreement, Britain will have to take part in elections of the European Parliament in late may.

In fact, now for London will be open all options, including a new referendum and a possible repeal of the “breccia” in the hope that the opponents of withdrawal from the EU.

A new referendum?

Theresa may last week promised that if the agreement with the EU once again will not pass in Parliament, be put to the vote of the house of Commons, different alternatives of action in relation to the EU.

If among these options is the proposal for a referendum and if it suddenly receives a majority, a second referendum will become a reality. So far, however, against a second referendum was not only Prime Minister but also the majority of deputies.

At a press conference following the summit, Theresa may, on five different questions answered about the same limited set of phrases, which includes the phrase that, in its opinion, the duty of the government and all British politicians — to implement the decision taken by referendum in 2016.

The Prime Minister’s change?

Not excluded, however, the reverse variant: Theresa may on the posts of leader of the Conservative party and the Prime Minister will be replaced by someone from the radical “Bracciano” and will lead the business to a decisive break with the EU, with agreement to release or not.

Theresa may at the end of March promised the deputies-party members to leave before may 22, if the house of Commons with them still approve the agreement leaving the EU.

However, more and more opponents may within the party openly talking about the need to displace it in the near future — possibly before the end of may and spend the summer election of a new party leader.

Jyri Vendik
Russian service Bi-bi-si